Understanding Changes

Every part of the store was busy, busy, busy. Grocer Hare hopped or skipped as fast as he could and carried as much as his little paws could hold because all the wheelbarrows were being used. Mrs Dance Weasel wanted a pound of potatoes and a pound of sugar, then Uncle Bigowl wanted two pounds of butter and he couldn't wait. On top of that, there were rats every where, sniffing and rummaging through the goods and buying up every morsel of molasses and grain in the shop.

That night, Grocer Hare limped his way to Snow Ears's burrow hole.

"Oh my feet," he said as he huddled down on the soft hay that Snow Ears had fluffed up for him.

"Another busy day?"

"Yes, it was. If this keeps up I think I will drop dead from exhaustion."

"Why don't you hire new workers or buy more barrows?"

"What if this is only a phase? All those new workers and new barrows will be idle a week or two later."

"Hmmm. Maybe I can help find out if the change is permanent."

"It feels like each customer is buying more stuff now. Notice how fat everyone has become?"

Snow Ears furrowed his brow. "Or more animals are buying the same amount of food."

"There is no difference between the two situations," Grocer Hare snapped, too tired to deal with a complicated conversation.

"Actually there is, because depending on which situation is true, your solution will be different."

Grocer Hare sat up, ignoring the dull throbbing in his hind legs. "What do you mean?"

"If each customer is buying more, then you need bigger wheelbarrows but you can keep the same number of workers. But if you have more customers buying the same amount of food, then you need more current size wheelbarrows and more workers."

"How do we find out? A survey is quite tedious at this point, I think," Grocer Hare said.

"You are right. Do you still have sales records for last year?"

Grocer Hare nodded.

Snow Ears said, "Good. Any idea how many customers you had then?"

"Yes, my store policy is one worker per customer, and I have calculated that animals come in at eight separate times on an average day. So that comes up to thirty-two expected walk-ins a day."

Snow Ears offered, "I will be free next week as Dr. Scales is away on holiday. I can drop by your store and observe the flow of customers. Maybe we can come up with more solutions?"

Grocer Hare huddled down with a great sigh of relief. For the rest of the night, they talked about the state of forest vegetation and the consequences of mud run-offs from upstream on their beloved water-hole.

True to his word, Snow Ears turned up bright and early on Monday morning and stayed next to the cash register all day until the store closed. He noted down how much each customer bought, and what kind of food they bought, and he also asked if they were only visiting the area. He did this every day up to Sunday night, when Grocer Hare locked up the store.

The next day, using the same-week data of the previous year and the data he had collected during his observation, Snow Ears drew up the following table.

Average customer per day in the week of Year 1 was 32 walk-ins, and for the week of Year 2 Snow Ears calculated the average to be 57 walk-ins per day. All the new customers he talked to had bought residences in the area, and none were planning to move out anytime soon.

From the survey, he learned that the week's sales had increased by 76% from the previous year.

(620,000 — 352,000) ÷ 352,000

   = 268,000 ÷ 352,000

   = 0.76 or 76%

Then Snow Ears calculated the per capita increase, that was, how much more each customer was buying compared to the previous year.

Year 1 average purchases per customer was 352,000 ÷ 32 = 11,000 seeds

Year 2 average purchases per customer was 620,000 ÷ 57 = 10,877 seeds

The week's year-on-year sales might have increased by 76%, but the volume of food sold to each customer had decreased a little.

Then Snow Ears recalled that there were a lot of mice customers who mostly bought only grains. So in his report to Grocer Hare he recommended that the store increase the choices and volume of grain, which will increase sales in the mice market. He also recommended that Grocer Hare change his store policy and position the staffs in sections rather than have them serve customers individually. That way he only needed to increase the number of wheelbarrows but could continue to maintain the current number of staff.

Grocer Hare took the recommendations to heart, and in the next three months, he tripled his monthly sales without killing himself from overwork.

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